The Green Lumber Fallacy and Educational Horror

So let us call the green lumber fallacy the situation in which one mistakes a source of necessary knowledge–the greenness of lumber–for another, less visible from the outside, less tractable, less narratable.

My intellectual world was shattered as if everything I had studied was not just useless but a well-organized scam–as follows….

[story omitted from quote]

When I saw that he was not the exception, I started freaking out watching all these years of education evaporating in front of my eyes. That very same day I stopped reading economic reports. I felt nauseous for a while during this enterprise of “deintellecualization”–in fact I may not have recovered yet…

So that is how I learned the lesson that price and reality as seen by economists are not the same thing. One may be a function of the other but the function is too complex to map mathematically. The relation may have optionality in places, something that these non-sentence-savvy people knew deep inside.

Nassim Taleb, “Antifragile”